Note: This thread is related to #Coronavirus #COVID19

Follow the World Health Organization's instructions to reduce your risk of infection:

1/ Frequently clean hands by using alcohol-based hand rub or soap and water.

2/ When coughing and sneezing cover mouth and nose with flexed elbow or tissue - throw issue away immediately and wash hands.

3/ Avoid close contact with anyone that has fever and cough.

Caitlin Rivers, PhD+ Your Authors @cmyeaton Outbreak science + epidemiology + health security. Assistant professor at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security (@JHSPH_CHS). ELBI alum. Apr. 06, 2020 1 min read + Your Authors

1/ This week we see some encouraging trends in the fraction of "influenza like illness" that is NOT influenza. Read on for explanation and important caveats.

2/ Since January I have been on a team with @reichlab looking weekly at the fraction of specimens taken for “influenza like illness” that test negative for influenza. You can learn about ILI surveillance here  https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/overview.htm 

3/ Originally we were looking for signs that community transmission of COVID contributed to our bad flu season. We did not find any evidence of that. Then when transmission did start to pick up in the US, we did see spikes in our metric. Full report:  https://github.com/reichlab/ncov/blob/master/analyses/ili-labtest-report-20200403.pdf 

4/ Now we are looking for downturns. Which we do see in some regions! The region that includes NY and NJ is still looking high, but others have declined from last week. This may indicate that social distancing is working and transmission is slowing down. However…

5/ …this is a very indirect analysis. It could be influenced by a lot of things that have nothing to do with COVID, like how and when people decide to go to the doctor. But it’s one more source of insights to help us understand what is happening in our communities. [end]


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