1) Pulling together feedback and incremental thoughts to yesterday's thread on how the next month will shape the next year for the market and the economy given the unusually high sensitivity to initial conditions and wide range of outcomes.
3) Consumption snapback in China has been powerful.
US Government continues to show it is willing to do absolutely anything to support the economy.
4) There will be a second wave next Fall/Winter. Vaccine timing likely 18 months.
More importantly, the virus is coming back aggressively in areas where social distancing is relaxed. A region in China is back under lockdown, Singapore, etc.
5) Early serological reads are 15%ish immunity at most, which is not bullish.
Herd immunity was achieved in Lombardy only once 1.7% of the population had died per one article. Very sobering.
Thanks to @John_Hempton for highlighting.
6) Absolutely no one believes this rally is real. No one.
You can follow @GavinSBaker.
Tip: mention @threader_app on a Twitter thread with the keyword “compile” to get a link to it.
Enjoy Threader? Sign up.
Since you’re here...
... we’re asking visitors like you to make a contribution to support this independent project. In these uncertain times, access to information is vital. Threader gets 1,000,000+ visits a month and our iOS Twitter client was featured as an App of the Day by Apple. Your financial support will help two developers to keep working on this app. Everyone’s contribution, big or small, is so valuable. Support Threader by becoming premium or by donating on PayPal. Thank you.