Gavin Baker+ Your Authors @GavinSBaker Husband, Becky Painter. CIO, Atreides Management. Former PM, Fidelity OTC fund. No investment advice, views all my own. Apr. 09, 2020 1 min read + Your Authors

1) Pulling together feedback and incremental thoughts to yesterday's thread on how the next month will shape the next year for the market and the economy given the unusually high sensitivity to initial conditions and wide range of outcomes.

2) SBA loan program is going much better than I appreciated. Here is a screenshot of an email I received about them from a smart friend:

3) Consumption snapback in China has been powerful.

"Revenge consumption."

US Government continues to show it is willing to do absolutely anything to support the economy.

4) There will be a second wave next Fall/Winter. Vaccine timing likely 18 months.

More importantly, the virus is coming back aggressively in areas where social distancing is relaxed. A region in China is back under lockdown, Singapore, etc.

5) Early serological reads are 15%ish immunity at most, which is not bullish.

Herd immunity was achieved in Lombardy only once 1.7% of the population had died per one article. Very sobering.

Thanks to @John_Hempton for highlighting.

6) Absolutely no one believes this rally is real. No one.

You can follow @GavinSBaker.


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