Derek Thompson+ Your Authors @DKThomp Writer at @TheAtlantic. Host of podcast CRAZY/GENIUS. Author of book HIT MAKERS. Talker on NPR's @hereandnow and @CBSNews. derek[at]theatlantic[dot]com Apr. 14, 2020 1 min read + Your Authors

is there a technical term for the difference between predictions that can't change the future (meteorologist: it will rain tonight) and predictions that certainly do affect the future (epidemiologist: given current policy, this very specific number ppl will die)?

i ask because it feels like a lot of ppl in the next few weeks are going to evaluate "type 2" predictions as if they're "type 1" predictions

but dramatic predictions of death change our behavior in a way that dramatic predictions of hurricane strength don't change wind speed

Answer seems to be: There are a few!

The most votes were for variations of "performative predictions" and "reactivity".

Thank you!

You can follow @DKThomp.


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