Note: This thread is related to #Coronavirus #COVID19

Follow the World Health Organization's instructions to reduce your risk of infection:

1/ Frequently clean hands by using alcohol-based hand rub or soap and water.

2/ When coughing and sneezing cover mouth and nose with flexed elbow or tissue - throw issue away immediately and wash hands.

3/ Avoid close contact with anyone that has fever and cough.

Tren Griffin+ Your Authors @trengriffin I work for Microsoft. Previously I was a partner at Eagle River, a private equity firm established by Craig McCaw. I am on the board of directors of Kymeta. Apr. 19, 2020 1 min read + Your Authors

1/ Risk has many different dimensions to consider including sources, magnitude and outcomes. Seth Klarman writes: "[risk is] described by both the probability and the potential amount of loss.” Charlie Munger emphasizes that your focus should be on any potential permanent loss.

2/ Warren Buffett :

“Take the probability of loss times the amount of possible loss from the probability of gain times the amount of possible gain. That is what we’re trying to do. It’s imperfect, but that’s what it’s all about.”

3/ 25iQuiz:

You live in Florida and your friend asks you to go to the beach with a group of friends tomorrow.

Should you use Buffett's formula in making your decision?

How does uncertainty about probabilities alter the size of the margin of safety in making your decision ?

4/ "A margin of safety is [is intended to] allow for human error, bad luck, or extreme volatility in a complex, unpredictable and rapidly changing world.” Seth Klarman

What margin of safety is appropriate given uncertainty about COVID-19? For example: 

5/ "Proper accounting is like engineering. You need a margin of safety." "Avoid things like racing trains to the crossing."' Charlie Munger

"Proper decisions about going to the beach with friends right now given COVID-19 are like engineering. You need a margin of safety." Tren

6/ 25iQuiz: Who said this:

"Listen, business is easy. If you’ve got a low downside and a big upside, you go do it. If you’ve got a big downside and a small upside, you run away. The only time you have any work to do is when you have a big downside and a big upside.”

You can follow @trengriffin.


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