Note: This thread is related to #COVID19.

Follow the World Health Organization's instructions to reduce your risk of infection. Avoid the three Cs: Crowded places, Close Contact Settings & Confined spaces. Airborne aerosols play an important role in transmitting COVID-19.

- Avoid crowded places and limit time in enclosed spaces

- Apply social distance

- Air rooms by opening windows & doors

- Keep hands and surfaces clean, cover coughs & sneezes

- Wear a mask when you are not at home or when physical distancing is not possible

Recent serology studies may be wrong. But if wrong, they‘re all wrong *in the same direction.*

Finnish: 20-50x undercount
Scottish: 27-55x
Stanford: 50-85x
Italian: 30x
Mass: 17x
Germany: 0.37% CFR
Denmark: 0.21%

If true, COVID19 has much more spread and much lower fatality.

We are still very far from herd immunity.

And because it’s novel, it can still overwhelm the hospital system.


To be fair, all serology tests, if biased, would bias the same way. When the actual percent infected is low and population samples are small, false positives will have an outsized impact compared to false negatives. But none of these shows less than a 10x undercount.

Dutch serology study (under 70 only though) says 0.08% IFR.

USC serology study just released showing 28-55x undercount. It’s vulnerable to the same critiques as the Stanford study.

Are we going to split into camps of Serology Deniers and Serology Believers? 🤔

You can follow @naval.


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