Tren Griffin @trengriffin I work for Microsoft. Previously I was a partner at Eagle River, a private equity firm established by Craig McCaw. I am on the board of directors of Kymeta. Apr. 26, 2020 1 min read

25iQuiz: Can you think of a way to gamble on the Internet that is legal in all US states?

"Only a few states allow internet gambling, including New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Nevada. But > 15 permit online sports gambling, and even more allow sports betting at physical casinos."

The smartest business people and investors don’t really “gamble” (a net present value negative activity) since their intent is to bet only when the odds are substantially in their favor (i.e., a net present value positive activity). Others do gamble. 

"A good litmus test for someone being a liar and an idiot is if they ever tell you, ‘I am really good at roulette,’ or ‘I win at craps,” or ‘I have a system for beating the slot machines.’ There is no such thing. These are games with fixed percentages." 

4/ "Slot machines are] the most moronic devices ever, one of the stupidest activities of humankind. People play negative-expectation games. That’s something I’m not willing to do. I’ve never even bought a lottery ticket.” Ed Thorp 

"It’s a mathematical fact, that if you play a game like this and the casino has the edge it will eventually collect all your money if you play long enough. Basically, what happens is your bankroll either grows or shrinks depending on what your edge is or your disadvantage." Thorp

6/ Student: "Do you ever gamble Las Vegas style?"

Charlie Munger: "I won’t bet $100 against house odds between now and the grave. I don’t do that. Why should I? I will gamble recreationally with my pals. That’s recreational."

7/ "Opportunity comes, but it doesn’t come often, so seize it when it does come. And the wise ones bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time they don’t. It’s just that simple.” Charlie Munger

You can follow @trengriffin.


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