Note: This thread is related to #Coronavirus #COVID19

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Ashish "I'm still focused on testing" Jha+ Your Authors @ashishkjha Physician, researcher, and advocate for the notion that an ounce of data is worth a thousand pounds of opinion. Director @harvardgh. Soon, Dean @healthybrown Apr. 28, 2020 1 min read + Your Authors

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There's a new study out that says 6% of Miami-Dade county residents are COVID Antibody +.

Is that a surprise? Does it mean the disease is way more widespread than expected?

 https://miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242260406.html 

1/n

Some data:

@statnews tracker says that there are 11,570 people known to be infected with COVID19 in M-D county.

There are 2.7 million people who live in M-D county.

So that means 0.43% of the population known to be COVID19 +

2/4

Math

0.43% by PCR
6% by antibody

So 14X people have had the infection as identified based on PCR testing.

In NYC, that number is about 13X.

Because of under-testing, I and others have argued that true number is 10-20X the identified cases

These studies in line that

3/4

So what does this mean?

Nationalized, M-D study suggests between 3% & 6% of the US population has been infected w SARS-CoV2

Lots of other issues to tackle including sampling, specificity, that ignoring for now.

Bottom line: Early in outbreak. No where near herd immunity

Fin


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