A new experience for me is that I talk to at least one (if not several) very reporters a day. Over the last two weeks I have answered A LOT of questions about serosurveys. A thread sharing some of the resulting stories.
Antibody surveys can also identify high-risk groups, Dean pointed out: “I think that’s very important for policy, understanding who are these groups that we need to focus on and work to protect.”
[Regarding the Santa Clara study] “There’s more uncertainty than they’ve accounted for,” Dean said.
[Dean] said UM’s preliminary results show a level of under-detection that is roughly consistent with the New York results and other estimates — aside from the more controversial Santa Clara study.
“I think there was a lot of hope that we would do the antibody testing or do the serosurveys and then we would see there was a huge amount of immunity built up in the population,” Dean said.
“In general I think things have been pretty consistent. It’s only in the really hard-hit places that we’re seeing anything above a single-digit number,” said Dean.
"Outbreaks are like an iceberg, where the top part that we can see are the people who are hospitalized or die, but there's a big bottom part made up of people who were missed," said Dean.
An infection rate of even 20 percent, the estimate from this survey for New York City, is “still a ways from herd immunity,” noted Dean.
The highest-quality studies involve going house to house to recruit a cross-section of society, said Dean
“In general the first (studies) out are going to be the easiest to do,” Dean said.
From Jillian Mock:
“Any way you slice the data ... it’s clear that herd immunity in this situation does not apply. It’s still way below that level,” said Dean.
In an email to me, Dean raised concerns about the estimated fatality rate from the data, writing that it “is not consistent with data from other countries, as well as emerging data from NYC.”
“I think there should be more pushback when people are not providing their methodology,” said Dean. “You should explain what you did. How do we know what you did, if it’s credible or not?”
You can follow @nataliexdean.
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