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John Burn-Murdoch+ Your Authors @jburnmurdoch Stories, stats & scatterplots for @FinancialTimes | Daily updates of the coronavirus trajectory tracker | [email protected] | #dataviz Apr. 29, 2020 2 min read + Your Authors

NEW: we’ve updated our excess mortality tracker, adding new countries and updating all locations

148k more deaths than usual across the 15 countries we‘re tracking; 54k above reported Covid deaths at the time

These charts now sit with the trajectories at 

One new addition is the US, where we’re already seeing 17,000 excess deaths nationwide, and we know lags in death registration mean this number will rise even for the period already shown.

The spike in England & Wales also continues to rise very steeply 

Another addition is the Brazilian city of Manaus, epicentre of the country’s outbreak.

Between 2015 & 2019 there were never more than 600 deaths registered in the city during April.

This year there were already 1,676 by 18 April, when the official Covid death count was just 161

Ecuador’s Guayas province still looks grim.

Latest figures from Ecuador’s civil registry show more than 12,000 deaths in the province since start of March.

In recent years, average for the same period is just 2,000, yet the official Covid death count still stands at just 245.

Here are subnational regions for the US.

The urban North East bore the brunt of the early outbreak, with excess deaths spiking in several states and cities.

NYC the undoubted epicentre; but deaths in New Jersey also doubled.

We’ll continue adding states as data comes in.

And here are subnational charts for England & Wales.

By 17 April there had been 27,000 excess deaths, yet reported Covid death numbers were just 13,719.

And deaths in London over recent weeks have been *more than double* the recent historical average.

To put it another way, the number of deaths registered in England & Wales in the week ending 17 April was the highest since this data was first recorded

The dots on this chart represent every week going back 50 years.

And remember: that huge Covid spike came *despite* lockdown.

Overall, our analysis finds excess deaths across these countries & cities were 58% higher than reported Covid deaths in same places at same times.

Remember that when you hear the numbers reported each day in your country.

All these charts, free to read: 

Please email us at

[email protected]

if you can point us to data for any other countries or cities on all-cause mortality (total numbers of deaths from all causes), preferably broken down by week or day, and running right up to and including recent weeks 🙏

We’re enormously grateful to those of you who have already done this. None of this work would be possible without you.

We added new countries today thanks to you, and we’ll be adding more of the data you sent in the coming days.

Final notes:
• Even when using official mortality data like this, there is a lag in reporting, meaning more deaths can be retrospectively assigned to past dates
• This means our excess mort numbers may rise *for the weeks we’re already showing here* as well as over future weeks

You can follow @jburnmurdoch.


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