Tren Griffin+ Your Authors @trengriffin I work for Microsoft. Previously I was a partner at Eagle River, a private equity firm established by Craig McCaw. I am on the board of directors of Kymeta. May. 01, 2020 1 min read + Your Authors

U.S. stock futures slump after [insert wrong answers only please, just like the many reports you can read every day! Use your imagination to confirm your biases!]

Making up pretend stories is fun since you can ignore randomness, complexity and ignore pesky disconfirming facts!

Narrative bias helps conspiracy theorists! Let's say you want to prove X controls Y.

You pretend (1) Vanguard has shareholders, even though its owned by its members; (2) companies in the Vanguard fund as investments control Vanguard and (3) other disconfirming facts don't exist!

"Rationality is seeing the world the way it is instead of the way you hope it is. [Not being rational] is like judging something through a distorted lens. You think the world is one way and it’s different. Of course, that leads to terrible mistakes. You want to think correctly."


You can follow @trengriffin.



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