Ramez Naam+ Your Authors @ramez Books: Nexus Series / The Infinite Resource. Faculty @SingularityU. Energy, climate, & innovation wonk. Optimist. May. 03, 2020 1 min read + Your Authors

Okay, energy twitter. Solar costs are coming down faster than just about anyone, including me, forecast. So I'm committing to publishing an update of my solar cost forecast this coming week. Spoiler: It shows a rather stunning pace of solar decline. Many won't believe it. 1/4

In addition, I'm going to publish an analysis of why my previous forecasts (while being perhaps the most optimistic out there) were still too conservative.

A single conceptual issue explains about 2/3 of the forecast miss from 2015. 2/4

I did that analysis because I needed to understand for myself the reason for the forecasting error. And because I think forecasters have an ethical obligation to assess the accuracy of their previous forecasts, and to improve their methods using that data. 3/4

Finally, after the solar forecast, I plan to come back to wind (mostly done, and also shows a stunning, unprecedented pace), stationary storage, & EVs. Putting this here to create social pressure on myself to get this done. :) Thanks. /fin

You can follow @ramez.


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