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Jason Furman
+ Your AuthorsArchive @jasonfurman Professor of Practice at Harvard. Teaches Ec 10, some tweets might be educational. Also Senior Fellow @PIIE. Was Chairman of President Obama's CEA. May. 05, 2020 1 min read

This might be the lowest point in the 74 year history of the Council of Economic Advisers. The stakes on the epidemiological questions are so high that this utterly superficial and misleading "modeling" has no place whatsoever in any discussion of the government's response.

The "cubic fit" is based on an approach to epidemiology that has long been absent from any serious epidemiological discussions. It made terrible predictions back in March and April. The functional form was chosen to get the result they wanted.

Faux expertise is even worse than ignorance. To the degree this crowded out input from genuine experts in the conversation and confused other participants into thinking that CEA or other economists had any sort of real or valid model of the epidemic it is really & truly terrible.

I should add, I decided a few yrs ago I would not criticize CEA, so many things coming out like hackish & political reports on socialism that compared Elizabeth Warren to Stalin that it would be a depressing full-time job to weigh in.

But this really matters so can't be silent.

You can follow @jasonfurman.


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