Note: This thread is related to #Coronavirus #COVID19

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Ashish "I want our CDC back" Jha+ Your Authors @ashishkjha Physician, researcher, and advocate for the notion that an ounce of data is worth a thousand pounds of opinion. Director @harvardgh. Soon, Dean @healthybrown May. 07, 2020 1 min read + Your Authors

This @bengoldacre paper is extraordinarily important.

Yes its a pre-print but its quite good. Read it. But I'll share a few high-level thoughts.

A thread

Why is it so great?

This is a large cohort study

They begin with 17.4 Million people enrolled in primary care in the UK – and track them over time:

Their primary goal:

Who dies of COVID19?

The outcome was in-hospital death

And they are using clinical data from EHRs


So what are the key findings?

People who are older were more likely to die (no surprise)

Men nearly twice the risk of death as women (size of this effect surprised me)

Obesity, diabetes, and severe asthma all independent risk factors

Immunosupression also (no surprise)


Interesting finding is that hypertension is NOT a risk factor.

Early studies suggested it might be. But now emerging data suggests its not an independent one. This paper helps solidify that.


Even in the UK, there is a large effect of race and SES.

Higher death rates for Asians, Blacks compared to whites

Higher death rates for low SES

These are NOT due to clinical factors

And UK has a single payer govt run system -- so that's no panacea for disparities


So bottom line?

Biggest cohort study of COVID19 deaths to date

Some findings expected (age, male, diabetes)

Huge effects by race, ethnicity, and SES in the UK, not explained by clinical factors

We need to understand why disparities in death for COVID19 here and in UK


You can follow @ashishkjha.


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