Americans didn't wait for governors to tell them to stay home.
In every state, the majority of the increase in home lockdowns happened before the governor issued a stay-at-home order.
Between March 9 and March 12:
- the Dow plunged
- Italy locked down
- the NBA canceled its season
- the Hanks' were positively diagnosed
- and media coverage skyrocketed
The American lockdown wasn't state-issued. It was information-based.
I see three factors here: viral contagion, social contagion, and law. In March, all three moved in one direction: the virus spread, fear + self-lockdowns spread, then govs issued orders.
Going forward, I think things will be much more disorganized.
What I mean by "more disorganized": In some states, governors will "reopen" the economy, while the virus keeps spreading.
In some places, ending lockdown laws won't change ppl's behavior. In other states, the public will defy lockdown orders ...
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