Note: This thread is related to #Coronavirus #COVID19

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Dr. Safa Mote+ Your Authors @SafaMote Applied Mathematician (Math PhD), Systems Scientist (Physics PhD) @UofMaryland. Pianist, music aficionado. Not political. Follows/tweets/RTs ≠ endorsements. May. 26, 2020 3 min read + Your Authors

Thread: Predicting #COVID deaths in the US from 8k to 100k.

I started predicting the US COVID death toll ~2 months ago. All of my predictions to date have proven accurate. The most painful predictions I have ever made.

Why have we failed to stop the #coronavirus in the US?

1/

My first prediction on Apr 4 (toll @ 8k) was for the Easter Sunday (20k):



2/

In my Apr 12 thread (toll @ 20k), I explained the fundamental systems concepts for the #coronavirus epidemic:



3/

I made my second prediction on Apr 12 for Apr 19 (40k). In the Apr 19 thread below, I explained my theory for the Kinematics of Epidemics:



4/

I made my third prediction on Apr 21 for May 1 (65k= MAX death toll REPEATEDLY predicted by Mr Trump). I discussed that in the May 1 thread below:



(@ft did not publish a cumulative deaths plot on May 1. Below is the daily new cases plot from Apr 28.)

5/

My fourth prediction was on May 10 for the Memorial Weekend: 100k +/– 5k deaths.

May 23 tally was 97k. May 25 tally was 99,459.

The current official tally, May 26, 5pm ET, is 100,038 (@bing).

Note that reporting of deaths are delayed on weekends.



6/

Mr. Trump's UPDATED prediction on May 1 for the MAXIMUM US death toll from #COVID was 100,000.

I made a rough projection on May 1 that we would reach ~100k deaths before the end of May:



/>
7/

I did not use any complex dynamic models or advanced statistical methods such as #MachineLearning or #AI. I did not even use a calculator. All I used was just a pen and paper.

A proof that the basic dynamics of the #coronavirus spread is fairly simple & predictable.

8/

We have had about 10 weeks of lockdowns in the US. These lockdowns slowed the exponential growth of cases to a linear trend. However, the deceleration rate of daily new cases is much slower than other countries that locked down around the same time.



9/

Daily new cases:

#Switzerland has the steepest negative slope, i.e., very successful deceleration.

#Italy, #Spain, #France, #Germany, #Netherlands have similar deceleration rates. But NL has unfortunately plateaued.

The UK is the worst in #Europe, yet better than the #US.

10/

Daily deaths:

#Austria, #Switzerland, the #Netherlands, #Belgium, #Germany, #France, #Spain are decelerating very rapidly. (FR & SP curves are right under Italy.)

#UK & #Italy are decelerating similarly.

#US: the slowest deceleration of daily deaths.

11/

Breakdown of the daily cases in the US States:

Except for #NewYork, we cannot see sharp deceleration in daily cases.

#NewJersey & #Massachusetts are decelerating slowly.

Other states have mostly plateaued, i.e., an almost constant number of daily new cases.

12/

Similar observations apply for daily deaths in the US States.

#NewYork has a significant deceleration.

#NewJersey, #Massachusetts, #Michigan have had a slow deceleration.

Most states have plateaued.

13/

Why have we failed to decelerate like EU countries, #SouthKorea, #Japan, #Australia, #NewZealand, #Iceland, etc?

1) People are not uniformly observing lockdowns (e.g., gatherings, close contacts).

2) We are not wearing masks PROPERLY & AT ALL TIMES while in closed spaces.

14/

Also, reopening CANNOT mean going back to "business as usual".

Crowded events, in closed or open spaces, will inevitably lead to further spread of the virus.

Example: a Memorial Weekend pool party near the Lake of the Ozarks.

/>
15/

And indoor spaces — gyms, churches, bars, clubs, restaurants, schools — cannot reopen until we EITHER "crush the curve" OR find a vaccine.

So, I'm not sure why the people going to this gym in
#NewJersey are so excited?!

/>


16/


You can follow @SafaMote.



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