Looking at the estimates for daily new cases in England (8K/day), the openings of shops/schools on Monday, watching carefully what's happening in East Asia & combining this with what we know so far about this virus --> feels like mistakes are being repeated from early March.
My suggestion: bring down daily new cases to a low level, get test/trace/isolate in place and core infrastructure build up, get regular testing going for essential workers/teachers/students, monitor borders for imported cases, & move to mandatory masks in shops/public transport.
Then ease measures while testing widely & w/ good data systems that alert public whether it is red/amber/green in their area. Need clusters of cases identified rapidly & broken up before tips over into sustained community transmission. If it tips, hard to avoid another lockdown.
Problem in using lag indicators: 21 days on average from infection to death- and countries seem to track 'progress' based on deaths. So by the time the data is worrying & increase in deaths is exponential, it's already too late.
You can follow @devisridhar.
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