Note: This thread is related to #COVID19.

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John Burn-Murdoch
+ Your AuthorsArchive @jburnmurdoch Stories, stats & scatterplots for @FinancialTimes | Daily updates of the coronavirus trajectory tracker | [email protected] | #dataviz Jun. 02, 2020 2 min read

NEW: we’ve updated our excess mortality tracker, the best measure for international comparisons of Covid death tolls

UK had 62,000 more deaths than usual through to May 22, the highest rate of excess deaths in the world

Free to read: 

Here are the full figures for all countries’ outbreaks.

Across much of Europe, mortality is now back at or approaching historical baselines, but in the US deaths are still significantly elevated, and in Latin America excess deaths continue to rise steeply.

Indeed, Peru has become one the new global epicentres, with officials struggling to capture its full death toll.

Nationally, Peru’s mortality is 2x usual levels, and the capital Lima is among the hardest hit subnational areas worldwide. Several Brazilian cities are also reeling.

In the US, the urban North East has still seen the bulk of excess deaths, but several other states and D.C. are now also suffering.

Nationally, the US was already above 82,000 excess deaths by May 2, 30% higher than its reported number of 60,991 Covid deaths at that time.

Overall across the 24 countries where we have excess mortality data, we find 327,000 excess during recent weeks.

This is 52% higher than the number of Covid deaths reported in these countries at the time.

You can freely access all of our raw data here: 

UK has suffered one of the worst outbreaks anywhere

Deaths have been:
• 64% higher than usual in England
• +53% in Scotland
• +42% in Northern Ireland
• +38% in Wales

9/12 regions have excess deaths above 50%

Bad outbreaks in many regions suggest action was taken too late.

Here’s the same for Spanish regions.

Many parts of Spain had severe outbreaks. Four saw deaths ~double, and a total of 6/19 saw at least a 50% spike.

Nonetheless, the data suggest the worst of Spain’s outbreak was contained in fewer regions than the UK’s was.

Here’s France, where Paris suffered badly, and the Grand Est region also faced a big outbreak, but although most other areas were affected none saw all-cause deaths increase by 50% or more.

And finally Italian regions, sorted north to south.

Lombardy was hit very hard, and two other northern regions saw excess deaths of 50%+, but in most of the country numbers were relatively muted.

For whatever reason, UK’s outbreak spread further than those of its peer countries

We’re still looking for more all-cause deaths data, where India is now our top target, but any country is appreciated.

Ideally daily, weekly or monthly data, for multiple years, and including 2020. Can be for one town or city, not just nationally

📦➡ [email protected] 🙏

You can follow @jburnmurdoch.


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