Devi Sridhar+ Your Authors @devisridhar Professor & Chair of Global Public Health, @EdinburghUni Medical School. Director of @GlobalHealthGP. Health governance, financing, policy, systems & security. Jun. 09, 2020 1 min read + Your Authors

Confused why scientists disagree about a 'second wave'? Thread attempting to explain:
1. Definition of 'second wave' debated. Some think it's any increase in cases after a sustained drop over days. Others think it is an increase after prolonged period (months) of few cases.

2. Some think the virus will mutate to a milder or less infectious version (no evidence yet, just theory).

3. Others think there's been broad population exposure to this virus and/or there's cross-immunity from other viruses. They think antibody (serology) test estimates (5-6% of population have antibodies to #SARSCoV2) don't show role of T-cells, etc. (no evidence yet, just theory).

4. Others think a second wave can be avoided with aggressive containment (test/trace/isolate) & individual behaviours (handwashing/distancing) resulting in virus numbers becoming so low, transmission limited to discrete, containable outbreaks. (e.g.South Korea, Germany). My view.

5. Finally some think that regardless of what is attempted by governments, a second wave is inevitable. That ultimately this virus is unstoppable (like flu) until 60-80% of people is exposed. Hopefully some population immunity builds up & virus becomes endemic (herd immunity).


You can follow @devisridhar.



Bookmark

____
Tip: mention @threader_app on a Twitter thread with the keyword “compile” to get a link to it.

Enjoy Threader? Sign up.

Since you’re here...

... we’re asking visitors like you to make a contribution to support this independent project. In these uncertain times, access to information is vital. Threader gets 1,000,000+ visits a month and our iOS Twitter client was featured as an App of the Day by Apple. Your financial support will help two developers to keep working on this app. Everyone’s contribution, big or small, is so valuable. Support Threader by becoming premium or by donating on PayPal. Thank you.


Follow Threader