Ashish K. Jha+ Your Authors @ashishkjha Physician, researcher, and advocate for the notion that an ounce of data is worth a thousand pounds of opinion. Director @harvardgh. Soon, Dean @Brown_SPH Jun. 14, 2020 1 min read + Your Authors

I spoke to @CarlaKJohnson of @AP said that I thought President Trump's rallies are dangerous.

They are very risky.

Before you lose your mind and call me a hypocrite for not calling BLM protests dangerous, let's examine some facts:

Short thread

What we know about virus spread:

There's no doubt large gatherings increase risk

True for rallies. And protests. Have said so many times

What decreases risk?

1. Being outside

2. Wearing masks

3. Moving, not stationary, crowds (evidence here weaker)

2/4

President Trumps rallies are planned to be:

1. held indoors

2. people unlikely to be wearing masks

3. folks will be stationary for hours

This is a dangerous combination

3/4

Am I sure rally in Tulsa, other places will fuel a big outbreak?

Of course not.

There is enough idiosyncrasy to the virus spread that we can't and shouldn't predict with certainty.

But the risk here is substantial.

4/5

Final point

Now I’m making a value judgment:

I don’t find protests against racism and political rallies to be morally equivalent.

Your values might differ.

But let's be clear: If @joebiden were holding a similar, indoor rally, I'd be just as critical

Fin


You can follow @ashishkjha.



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