Note: This thread is related to #Coronavirus #COVID19

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Ashish K. Jha+ Your Authors @ashishkjha Physician, researcher, and advocate for the notion that an ounce of data is worth a thousand pounds of opinion. Director @harvardgh. Soon, Dean @Brown_SPH Jun. 19, 2020 1 min read + Your Authors

Graphs via @nataliexdean indeed worrisome

Big increases in 4 states

Ah, you say, but isn’t this all just from more testing?

How can we know?

Well, we can examine two key metrics that will help

% of tests that are positive

# of hospitalizations (lagging indicator)

Thread

So how do these 4 states do on these metrics?

Let’s compare data from today (6/18) vs 2 weeks ago (6/4) from @covidtracking

Arizona
6/4: 9.9% positive 1079 hospitalized
6/18: 18.6% positive 1667 hospitalized

2/4

Florida
6/4: 5.4% positive
6/18: 12.6% positive

No current hospitalizations data in FL

North Carolina
6/4: 6.2% positive, 659 hospitalized
6/18: 5.1% positive, 857 hospitalized

Texas
6/4: 5.2% positive, 1796 hospitalized
6/18: 9.2% positive, 2947 hospitalized

3/4

So % positive has gone up a lot in AZ, FL, and TX

(flat in NC)

Hospitalizations have risen a bunch in AZ, NC, TX

(no data for FL)

So -- this is very strong evidence that the large increases we are seeing across these 4 states are not due to testing alone.

4/5

During this entire pandemic, has been tempting to look at concerning developments and find most favorable explanation.

We're doing that again by saying its all due to testing.

Its not.

We have to make more efforts to get cases in these and other states under control

Fin


You can follow @ashishkjha.



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