Countries have few choices bc can't stay in lockdown much longer:
1. Eliminate with border screenings (islands);
2. Let it go & hope to build up immunity (takes months as shown by Sweden & US);
3. Control virus, but risk flare-ups & reimposing restrictions (struggle in winter).
#1 is best path to resume 'normal' economic & social life. But requires to massively scale up testing, identify each case, trace their contacts & isolate all carriers. Border checks necessary to catch all imported cases. Islands make it simpler but others also can do it (Vietnam)
#2 is the riskiest b/c we don't even know if immunity can be built, whether antibodies provide protection, & early serology (antibody) studies show only 5-8% in most countries with higher % in cities. Worrying long-term health implications for recoverers on top of the deaths.
#3 Trying to control the virus at low level- means a new kind of 'normal' with distancing, masks, continual monitoring for local outbreaks, small groups. Test/trace system will be stressed in winter & always risk of a 2nd lockdown if cases increase over health system capacity.
You can follow @devisridhar.
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