Note: This thread is related to #Coronavirus #COVID19

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John Burn-Murdoch+ Your Authors @jburnmurdoch Stories, stats & scatterplots for @FinancialTimes | Daily updates of the coronavirus trajectory tracker | [email protected] | #dataviz Jun. 23, 2020 1 min read + Your Authors

Time to dust off an old chart: week-on-week change in hospitalisations.

With new cases rising in many US states but testing also expanding, hospitalisations hint at which states are really bad, and which perhaps less so.

I’ve added a new cases line to the hospitalisation bars.

I’m showing 9 states that all have increasing trends of new confirmed cases, and usable hospitalisation data. All via @covid19tracking

The two that stand out are Arizona & Texas; both show a clear acceleration in hospitalisations as well as the steady rise in new positive tests.

It’s a shame hospitalisation data in many states — and many other countries — is patchy, as this is an invaluable indicator of genuine outbreak severity (as good for second waves as these delayed US first waves) at a time when the extent and composition of testing differ widely.

NB can’t *directly* compare hospital bars to cases line (bars = net 7-day flow, line = 7-day avg), but relative height of bars vs line is rough indicator of relative share of new cases that require hospital.

e.g higher share of TX’s confirmed cases need hospitalisation than NC’s

To conclude: lots of interesting patterns beneath the surface of US state-level data atm, so it’s important to think about alternative interpretations before jumping to easy conclusions.

@DKThomp is deep in the details on lots of this, well worth a follow if you’re not already.


You can follow @jburnmurdoch.



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