Caitlin Rivers, PhD+ Your Authors @cmyeaton Outbreak science + epidemiology + health security. Assistant professor at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security (@JHSPH_CHS). ELBI alum. Jun. 24, 2020 1 min read + Your Authors

At the national level, we are clocking case counts reminiscent of April. This is bad news - we are headed in the wrong direction. In 3 of the last 5 days we’ve registered over 30k per day. 1/

Yes I am aware that testing turns up more cases. That is indeed the point. But in many of the states experiencing a resurgence, hospitalizations are up and the percent of tests that are positive is rising. Those are signs of trouble. 2/

I am concerned about states where the outbreak is accelerating. TX, AZ, SC, OK, OR are looking troubling. In AZ, ICU capacity is down to 16% and % positive is up to 20%. In TX, the # of people hospitalized is up from 1,756 on June 1 to 4,092 yesterday. It’s not just testing. 3/

It’s not just the epi that worries me. Realistic assessments, masks and contact tracing are prudent public health measures that should not be politicized. These are things people need to keep themselves and others safe. 4/

But even where transmission is intensifying, the will to correct course has seemingly waned. It’s hard to imagine how we will get to a better place. In some ways this feels worse than April bc at least then there was energy around gaining control. I sense less of that now. 5/

Better news: deaths are down nationally. This could mean more mild infections are being caught, or that the average age of new cases is drifting down or that treatments are improving. Most states don’t report case severity or time-varying age breakdowns, so it’s tough to say. 6/

But deaths are also a delayed indicator, so I hope this holds. 7/

There are parts of the country that are doing very well, including some that were hit early and hard. NY, NJ, MA, IL, had a tough time with over 100k cases each, but have now sustained declines for weeks. This shows again that it can be done. We need to do it again. 8/8

You can follow @cmyeaton.


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