Note: This thread is related to #Coronavirus #COVID19

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Peter Aldhous+ Your Authors @paldhous Science. Data. Journalism. Maps. Reporter @BuzzFeedNews, lecturer @UCSC_SciCom @ucbsoj, instructor @AMI_Berkeley Jun. 24, 2020 1 min read + Your Authors

THREAD: #BlackLivesMatter protests have not led to clear spikes in #COVID19 transmission. What does that mean?
1/ Here are trends in new cases (7 day rolling average) for some counties with large protests
 https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/black-lives-matter-protests-coronavirus-no-surges 

2/ Mask wearing and the outside setting may have helped, but experts warned not to leap to the conclusion that all outside gatherings are safe
 https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/black-lives-matter-protests-coronavirus-no-surges 

3/ Other possible factors include relative youth of the protesters, and the fact that, even given the large size of many protests, most people in those cities were not crowded together
 https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/black-lives-matter-protests-coronavirus-no-surges 

4/ Indeed a new study of cellphone tracking data suggests that, overall, people in those cities stayed at home *more* after the protests began.
 https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408.pdf 
 https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/black-lives-matter-protests-coronavirus-no-surges 

5/ What is clear is that new cases are surging across the South and West, driving an overall increase for the US as a whole. That seems to have be driven by relaxations of social distancing that began before the protests.
 https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/black-lives-matter-protests-coronavirus-no-surges 

6/ Quote from @DrHowardKoh, former assistant secretary for health, now at Harvard: “The fact that overall cases in the United States are going the wrong way is deeply concerning when we’re 5 months into the first wave.”

 https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/black-lives-matter-protests-coronavirus-no-surges 


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