Ashish K. Jha+ Your Authors @ashishkjha Physician, researcher, and advocate for the notion that an ounce of data is worth a thousand pounds of opinion. Director @harvardgh. Soon, Dean @Brown_SPH Jun. 25, 2020 1 min read + Your Authors

We’ve all been hearing about states with spiking cases, specifically AZ, TX, FL, and NC

But there are 5 other states where data also very concerning

They have rising case count, rising test positivity, and rising hospitalization

They each deserve more attention


So let’s look at each of these 5 and compare where they were exactly 2 weeks ago (6/24 versus 6/10)


1. Georgia
Cases up 133%
% positive tests (5.3% --> 14.2%)
Hospitalizations up 38%


2. Mississippi (7-day rolling b/c bouncy data)
Cases up 29%
% positive tests (7.4% -->16.1%)
Hospitalizations up 8.1%

3. Oklahoma (7-day rolling b/c bouncy data)
Cases up 286%
% positive tests (2.3% --> 7.9%)
Hospitalizations up 41%


4. Nevada
Cases up 172%
% positive tests (3.6% --> 9.5%)
Hospitalizations up 22%

5. South Carolina
Cases up 142%
% positive tests (11.7% -->14.3%)
Hospitalization up 62%


So in each of these 5 states

Cases are up
% of tests positive are up
hospitalizations are rising.

This is very concerning.

Remember that rising hospitalizations are a lagging indicator, occurring 10-12 days after infection, 5-7 days after symptom onset


That means that as hospitalizations rise, you've got 10+ days of rising infections baked in

Each of these states needs to take more urgent action to curtail its rising number of infections.

Window for action is much narrower than most people realize.


There are other states where data also look concerning but where one of the criteria (% positive, new hospitalizations) either not rising significantly or not available.

But am still worried about them.

They include Alabama, Arkansas, California, Utah, to name a few.

You can follow @ashishkjha.


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