Note: This thread is related to #Coronavirus #COVID19

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Ashish K. Jha+ Your Authors @ashishkjha Physician, researcher, and advocate for the notion that an ounce of data is worth a thousand pounds of opinion. Director @harvardgh. Soon, Dean @Brown_SPH Jul. 08, 2020 1 min read + Your Authors

Some folks arguing that rising cases of COVID no big deal because people aren’t getting sick

And death rates still falling so its all harmless, right?

Actually, no.

Closer look at data tells a concerning story

Deaths starting to rise. Exactly as we worried about


Before I jump into data, here's my approach

All data from @covid19tracking.

All using 7 day moving avg (because daily data bouncy)

And all comparing today (7/7) vs. exactly 2 weeks ago (6/23)

What do we see? Some concerning numbers


I look at 5 states with the highest number of new cases / population (7-day rolling avg).

Again, comparing today to 14 days ago.


1. Arizona:
Testing up 12%
Cases up 36%
Current Hospitalizations up 66%
Dally deaths up 79%


2. Florida:
Testing up 80%
Cases up 162%
Current Hosps not available
Daily deaths up 37%

3. Louisiana:
Testing up 15%
Cases up 162%
Current Hosps up 50%
Daily deaths up 7%

4. South Carolina:
Testing up 56%
Cases up 65%
Current Hosps up 76%
Daily deaths up 62%


5. Texas:
Testing up 41%
Cases up 86%
Current Hosps: up 140%
Daily deaths up 52%

And what about next 5 states?

Georgia, Nevada, Mississippi, Alabama, and California.

They all have big increases in hospitalizations

And 4 out of 5 have increased deaths...all but Georgia


And for contrast

New York:
Testing down 4%
Cases up 2%
Current Hosps: down 32%
Daily deaths down 56%

So what does this all tell you?


First, remember

Death is a lagging indicator

Deaths rising in 5 of 5 states with largest outbreaks. In 9 out of top 10 states!

National mortality numbers funny because states like NY, NJ, MA still falling.

So rise in some places, fall in others makes nation look flat


Let’s stop pretending cases are rising but its all harmless

Big increases in hospitalizations were obvious days ago

Now, rising death toll in those states

Exactly as the clinical course of COVID would predict.

Let’s focus on slowing the spread of this serious disease


You can follow @ashishkjha.


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