Note: This thread is related to #Coronavirus #COVID19

Follow the World Health Organization's instructions to reduce your risk of infection:

1/ Frequently clean hands by using alcohol-based hand rub or soap and water.

2/ When coughing and sneezing cover mouth and nose with flexed elbow or tissue - throw issue away immediately and wash hands.

3/ Avoid close contact with anyone that has fever and cough.

Derek Thompson+ Your Authors @DKThomp Writer at @TheAtlantic. Host of podcast CRAZY/GENIUS. Author of book HIT MAKERS. Talker on NPR's @hereandnow and @CBSNews. derek[at]theatlantic[dot]com Jul. 09, 2020 1 min read + Your Authors

Many thanks to people who read, criticized, engaged with this piece today.

 https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/07/why-covid-death-rate-down/613945/ 

This is the chart I keep coming back to, not only because it shows deaths spiking in hotspot states, but also because it tells a plausible two-part story of COVID.

1. A Spring Outbreak, mostly in the NE, before much testing or transmission knowledge, devastated nursing homes, leaving a super high death rate.

2. A Summer Outbreak, mostly south, killed more slowly at first, bc of initially younger patients & more hospital capacity/knowledge.

That took the full 280 and it still doesn't touch on lead time bias, or how expanded testing might change the risk profile of confirmed cases, or how summer effects might play a role, or how masks and outdoor gatherings might lead to lower-dosage infections ... it's just a lot.

Writing about this disease sometimes feels like trying to measure a four-dimensional object with a ruler.


You can follow @DKThomp.



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