Note: This thread is related to #Coronavirus #COVID19

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Ashish "The pandemic is still with us" Jha+ Your Authors @ashishkjha Physician, researcher, and advocate for the notion that an ounce of data is worth a thousand pounds of opinion. Director @harvardgh. Soon, Dean @Brown_SPH Jul. 10, 2020 1 min read + Your Authors

The state of the outbreak in the US 7/9/2020

Thinking about the 50 states

See three sets of trends/risks

One group (Hot Spots) are in trouble

2nd group (On The Bubble) can deteriorate if not careful

3rd group (In Control) have room to maneuver

What are their trends?


First, definitions

All data from @covid19tracking
All 7-day moving averages
All comparisons: today (7/9) vs. 2 weeks ago (6/25)

Hot spots: states with new cases: >15/100K
On the bubble: states with new cases: 5 to 15 /100K
Under control: states with new cases: <5 /100K


So how are these three groups of states doing?

1. Hot Spots (14 states, approx 40% of US population)

Testing up 28%

Cases up 73%

Percent positive 9.6% -->13.0%

Hospitalizations up 76%

Deaths up 34%

All 14 states look like they are in some trouble


2. On The Bubble (25 states, 40% of US population)

Testing up 14%

Cases up 36%

Percent positive 4.7% --> 5.6%

Hospitalizations up 0.7%

Deaths down 28%

In this group, 5 states worry me – OK, KS, OH, MO, WV


3. Under Control (11 states, 20% of US population)

Testing up 2%

Cases up 10%

Percent positive 1.4% --> 1.5%

Hospitalization Down 83%

Mortality Down 74%

In this group, 2 states (MA and MI) starting to go in wrong direction. May be its a blip? Don't know


So what does this mean?

First, need aggressive policies to bring Hot Spots under control

Bubble states tenuous. Need masking, testing, more controls to avoid their becoming hot spots

Third, states under control are doing well. Vigilance, modest actions can keep them there


Bottom line?

We don’t have a single outbreak – but 50 outbreaks

All states do need mandatory masks

And a national strategy would still be super helpful

But by grouping states, we can customize approach to protect lives, livelihoods


You can follow @ashishkjha.


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