Note: This thread is related to #COVID19.

Follow the World Health Organization's instructions to reduce your risk of infection. Avoid the three Cs: Crowded places, Close Contact Settings & Confined spaces. Airborne aerosols play an important role in transmitting COVID-19.

- Avoid crowded places and limit time in enclosed spaces

- Apply social distance

- Air rooms by opening windows & doors

- Keep hands and surfaces clean, cover coughs & sneezes

- Wear a mask when you are not at home or when physical distancing is not possible

Ben Cowling
+ Your AuthorsArchive @bencowling88 Professor, School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong Jul. 10, 2020 1 min read

(1/7) Worrying indications that the second wave of COVID-19 has now begun in Hong Kong, with more than 50 local infections being identified in the past few days and a large number expected to be reported later today.

(2/7) Our estimate of the effective reproductive number "Rt" for local infections is close to 3, which is concerning  https://covid19.sph.hku.hk/  It will take a lot of effort to bring down such a high reproductive number.

(3/7) Clusters have been identified in an elderly home, a public housing estate, and linked with some restaurants. Test+trace has not prevented this. Mask-wearing in public is still universal, and has not prevented this.  https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3092611/coronavirus-schools-suspended-hong-kong-over 

(4/7) In our analysis of the first wave, we estimated that Rt rose above 2 in late March. This occurred even though we were doing a lot of testing and contact tracing, everyone was wearing face masks, schools were closed, and mass gatherings discouraged.

(5/7) Implementing work-from-home for civil servants and private businesses, closing bars and leisure facilities, and enhancing social distancing in restaurants was able to bring the first wave under control, and hopefully similar measures will be able to halt this second wave.

(6/7) How did the second wave start? We may never know, but given the absence of local cases for most of the past 3 months, these latest outbreaks may have been started by relatively more recent importations.

(7/7) When the second epidemic is controlled, this really emphasises the importance of keeping infections out through effective testing and quarantine of persons arriving in Hong Kong. Once an epidemic begins, it will take a lot of effort to stop.


You can follow @bencowling88.



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