Note: This thread is related to #Coronavirus #COVID19

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Ashish "The pandemic is still with us" Jha+ Your Authors @ashishkjha Physician, researcher, and advocate for the notion that an ounce of data is worth a thousand pounds of opinion. Director @harvardgh. Soon, Dean @Brown_SPH Jul. 12, 2020 2 min read + Your Authors

Today’s data on COVID in our nation is very concerning.

Houston, we have a problem.

Looking at 7 day averages,

Cases rising in 43 states

% of tests + going up in 39 states

Hospitalizations? up in 29 states

Deaths? Up in 28 states

But not all states are the same

Thread

If we use Convergence TTSI model (developed by large coalition -- see  https://globalepidemics.org )

Cut points (applied to states)

Red: >25 new cases per 100k per day

Orange: 10 - 24.9 new cases per 100K per day

Yellow: 1 to 9.9 new cases per 100K per day

Green: <1 per day

2/6

There are 9 Red States

AZ, FL, LA, SC, TX, GA, AL

Over past 2 weeks,

Hospitalizations are up 86%.

Deaths up 75%. Yes, 75%

15 Orange States:

NV, ID, MS, TN, CA, UT, AK, NC, IA, OK, KS, NM, WI, DE, MN

Over past 2 weeks

Hospitalizations up 42%

Deaths up 26%

3/6

There are 28 Yellow States (all the rest except 1)

Over past 2 weeks,

Hospitalizations down 5%

Deaths down 55%

There is one Green state. Ironically, Vermont!

4/6

Things in Red Zone very worrisome

Not sure what turns it around

Certainly, fully enforced mask order

No indoor gatherings. No bars, clubs, restaurants. Only essential retail

May exempt remote counties

Worried they are heading towards full shutdown unless path changes

5/7

Orange Zone concerns me – many states on the brink

NV, ID, MS, TN, and CA could turn Red soon.

They have to get aggressive now

CA is large state with some places that look as bad as AZ, TX, other places look fine

6/8

Yellow Zone has opportunity to avoid trouble

OH, KY, MO, and WV among those that should ratchet back activity (they're about to turn orange)

Most of these states need to ramp up testing further.

And all of them should try to suppress virus – they still can

7/8

Green Zone -- Vermont

Just do what you're doing.

Much of our nation in trouble

Some states must be aggressive. Their wildfires out of control

Others seeing growing flames. Still containable

Each day # of states getting worse grows

No longer South or West issue. Increasingly an American problem

All states must do more

Fin

One more thing

Folks asking if VT really the only state doing well.

No.

Bunch of states have low percent positive tests, largely stable number of cases, and hospitalizations/deaths actually falling.

What states?

RI, NY, MA, NJ, CT, HI, NH, and ME


You can follow @ashishkjha.



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