Los Angeles Times+ Your Authors @latimes Bringing L.A. to the world and the world to L.A. Subscribe now: latimes.com/subscribe Jul. 13, 2020 1 min read + Your Authors

A new study suggests that last year’s Ridgecrest earthquakes increased the chance of a large earthquake on California’s San Andreas fault  https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-07-13/ridgecrest-quakes-big-earthquake-san-andreas-fault-study 

The study, published in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, says there is now a 2.3% chance of an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater in the next 12 months on a section of the 160-mile-long Garlock fault.  https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-07-13/ridgecrest-quakes-big-earthquake-san-andreas-fault-study 

That increased likelihood, in turn, would cause there to be a 1.15% chance of a large earthquake on the San Andreas fault in the next year.  https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-07-13/ridgecrest-quakes-big-earthquake-san-andreas-fault-study 

Those odds may seem small. But they’re a substantial jump from what the chances were before last year’s Ridgecrest, Calif., earthquakes, whose epicenters were about 125 miles northeast of downtown L.A.  https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-07-22/ridgecrest-earthquake-images-broken-ground 

The new odds mean a large quake on the Garlock fault, which runs along the northern edge of the Mojave Desert, is now calculated to be 100 times more likely — rising from 0.023% in the next year to 2.3%.  https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-07-13/ridgecrest-quakes-big-earthquake-san-andreas-fault-study 

And the chance of a large quake on the San Andreas has roughly tripled, from 0.35% in the next year to 1.15%, said Ross Stein, a coauthor of the study and the CEO of Temblor, a catastrophe modeling company in the Bay Area.  https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-07-13/ridgecrest-quakes-big-earthquake-san-andreas-fault-study 

The study is the latest suggestion of a plausible scenario in which the earthquakes might have started a chain of events that could result in a devastating earthquake on the San Andreas fault that has not been seen in Southern California in 163 years.  https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-07-13/ridgecrest-quakes-big-earthquake-san-andreas-fault-study 

Read more from @ronlin:  https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-07-13/ridgecrest-quakes-big-earthquake-san-andreas-fault-study 


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