Note: This thread is related to #Coronavirus #COVID19

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Ashish K. Jha+ Your Authors @ashishkjha Physician, researcher, and advocate for the notion that an ounce of data is worth a thousand pounds of opinion. Director @harvardgh. Soon, Dean @Brown_SPH Jul. 26, 2020 2 min read + Your Authors

Looking across our nation this Sunday, we have a very uneven picture

Within hot spots

Some states hitting a plateau. A few even turning down

While others still rising quickly.

And outside hot spots, signs of brewing trouble in some places, calmness elsewhere

A thread

OK a diversion on methods:

1 Hot spots defined by @WhiteHouse Task Force: 100 new cases/100K pop/week

2 All #s 7-day moving averages

3 Comparisons with 2 weeks ago

4 Look at cases, tests, % positive, hospitalizations, deaths

Descriptions below obviously judgment calls

2/n

So let’s talk about what hot spot states

First: the good news:

Arizona clearly heading in the right direction.

Cases down about 25% (vs 2 wks ago).
About 22% of tests are positive, down from 26%

TX also looks like it may be heading down

3/n

Texas cases are down but a meager 1% from 2 wks prior

Test positivity down from 16% to 13%.

I see this as hopeful.

But both TX and AZ gains very fragile and could turn if current efforts not sustained and augmented

4/n

Some states hitting a HIGH plateau, not turning down yet

Florida, Louisiana, N&S Carolina, Arkansas, California, Oklahoma, Iowa, Utah

And MAY BE – if you squint at the data – Georgia. May be.

Some have put in smart policies recently (CA).

Others need to do a lot more

5/n

Then there are hot spot states that are still heading in the wrong direction

Mississippi, Alabama, Nevada, Tennessee, Idaho, Missouri

Whatever they're doing clearly not enough

In each, cases are up, percent of test positives are up. hospitalizations and deaths rising

6/8

Next, there are non-hot-spot states heading there

And need to turn around

Wisconsin, ND, Kentucky, Nebraska, Montana, Wyoming

Some of these are small states so don’t make national news.

But often have limited hospital capacity. Can ill afford to stretch their ICUs.

7/9

Overall, across our nation, there are some rays of sunshine

States like NY, MI, MA, RI, WV, a few others

And its good to see terrifying exponential growth in big states like FL, TX, CA starting to plateau

But much of the country is still waist deep or neck deep in COVID

8/9

And hospital capacity is stretched across much of our nation, but not breaking. Yet

But you can’t run ICUs at 150% of normal capacity forever

You start running out of PPEs, meds, people

Because Doctors, nurses are humans. They can’t keep going in crisis mode forever

9/10

And don't get me started on testing

Wholly inadequate in many parts of the country

But on this Sunday, as we reflect, its not all bad news

National picture: dark clouds. Heavy rains in many places

But also rays of sunshine

Evidence that as a country, we can do better

Fin


You can follow @ashishkjha.



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