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Patrick McKenzie+ Your Authors @patio11 I work for the Internet, at @stripe, mostly on accelerating startups. Opinions here are my own. Aug. 30, 2020 1 min read + Your Authors

“The future is here but not evenly distributed” is one of the best intuition pumps I know of. Want to guess based on your presumably tech-forward lifestyle what percentage of transactions happen online? I think many of my friends would say 80-90%+ sounds right in their lives.

There’s substantial uncertainty in measurement, but the best estimates I’ve seen (broken out on a country by country basis) show 5%, 8%, and a high water mark of 10%.

Even if literally nothing improves and no consumer behaviors fundamentally change in response to events or improvements, both of which seem like really silly predictions, just the tailwind of lagging adoption makes the Internet economically massive.

This is one of the enablers of “We’ve seen 10 years happen in 10 weeks” vis covid; there were still 10 years of linear growth in the tank. (And another 30ish behind them, if you could believe it.)

(That quote, from many people, was re: surging e-commerce share of retail.)

You can follow @patio11.


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