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Patrick McKenzie+ Your Authors @patio11 I work for the Internet, at @stripe, mostly on accelerating startups. Opinions here are my own. Sep. 11, 2020 1 min read + Your Authors

Hard to look at this chart and not think “Yep I need to revise upward my estimates of software businesses.”

(It may not look like that, but understand that the middle of the graph looks like “We were growing at 40% YoY and then covid happened so now we are at 36% YoY.”)

Incidentally, a recurring theme for me: it’s tough but useful to identify things where you might be at the 99th percentile of Getting It and still be undershooting.

I think there is a risk that I am basically here vis the software opportunity writ broadly.

I also think I’m probably 99th percentile for informed cryptocurrency skepticism but if I’m wrong it is almost certainly not “Insufficiently skeptical.”

Software as a business and social impact of Internet, though, main worry is “not crazy enough.”

“What would ‘more skeptical than patio11 on crypto’ even look like?”

It feels unlikely to me that insert-major-US-exchange has WireCard style fraud going on, that insert-US-bank-that-banks-crypto is a control fraud like S&L crisis, etc. Those are conceivable but I’d bet against.

You can follow @patio11.


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