Note: This thread is related to #COVID19.

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Gavin Baker
+ Your AuthorsArchive @GavinSBaker Husband, Becky Painter. CIO, Atreides Management. Former PM, Fidelity OTC fund. No investment advice, views all my own. gavin-s-baker.com/ Nov. 25, 2020 1 min read

1) The "Roaring 20s" followed World War I and the Spanish Flu.

Interested to see if history repeats and we have another "Roaring 20s" following Covid.

2) Think there is a reasonable chance that the two year period from mid 2021 through mid 2023 will see the strongest demand *ever* for leisure travel and apparel.

Credit to Evercore for the idea.

Time will tell!

3) Want to clarify that my “Roaring 20s” comment referred to consumer behavior, not a decade long bull market.

I rarely have an opinion on the overall stock market and certainly don’t have any demonstrated ability to consistently time the market. See:

 https://medium.com/@gavin_baker/risk-reward-in-the-stock-market-three-body-problems-and-hic-sunt-leones-96fbba67986f 

4) I do think that the “Roaring 20s” consumer behavior thesis is more priced in for travel related names than for apparel names.

And it does subjectively *feel* like late 99/early 2000 in pockets of the market. i.e. EV SPACs.

Time will tell!

5) Addedum: it has been pointed out to me that David Kostin at GS was the first to make the “Roaring 20s” analogy, not Evercore.

So credit where credit is due and apologies to David who does great work.


You can follow @GavinSBaker.



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