The EU is about to launch it's draft guidelines on trade and the future EU-UK relationship.
We understand it will offer an "FTA" to the UK.
One big question is what that will mean for services.
The CBI @CBItweets has put out a paper on this.
Some choice cuts. THREAD
The biggest and best deal the EU has ever done is the Canada deal, CETA. It is "patchy" on services which accounts for almost 80% of the UK’s GDP and 4 in 5 jobs across the country. The EU is the single largest destination for UK services – worth c £90bn a year to the UK economy
Citing research by NIESR it warns that for services trading under FTA terms would be the same as doing it under WTO terms.
This would have a disproportionate impact on some of the most pro-Brexit areas of the UK. /3
Accordingly the UK needs a deal on mutual recognition of qualifications - which they are likely to get, but maybe with strings/complications.
The UK also needs to sort out the ongoing validity of legal contracts like insurance policies./5
Barriers to services access will hit 'fly-in-fly-out' providers, like accountants, management consultants, lawyers etc who provide services at short notice by flying into the EU.
If that gets costlier, trickier, then EU businesses will likely use EU service providers. /6
All this stuff is complicated to negotiate, will take time - which is why CBI and others are hammering May and UKG on need for a transition deal in March.
It says 61% of UK businesses are planning for 'no deal' worst case. But... /7
PS. This is link to NIESR research cited by @CBItweets
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