Josh Wolfe+ Your Authors @wolfejosh Co-Founder @Lux_Capital Trustee @SfiScience Santa Fe Inst Chair @CiPrep Coney Island Prep (Brooklyn) Co-Founder of Carson, Quinn & Bodhi w/ @ltwolfe Mar. 09, 2018 1 min read + Your Authors

1/ Key Q of companies (+ countries)
Do more people want to ENTER then LEAVE?

High-level senior management departures at Tesla 🤔
-Chief Accounting Officer/Controller (Branderiz)
-CFO (Wheeler)
-Head of Sales +Service (McKneill)
-VP BizDev (O’Connell)
-Director, Batteries (Kelly)

2/ Chief Accounting Officer abruptly walked away from $300k salary and $5M of vesting stock. And exercised + DUMPED his options EVERY month since he came on 18 months ago, owning NO stock.

3/ A key assumption underpinning BULL thesis:
Model 3.
Sure Model 3 is plagued with production issues.
But now reviews are coming back very...not, like, good.

4/ Like really really not very...good.

5/ Another key component of BULL thesis: CHINA demand. Big TAM!

BUT: this today sounds like a frustrated “hey, no fai” NOT the sign or sound of optimistic competitive superiority.

Any US investor/player ever thought of doing in biz in China read “Mr. China” (2005) + knew this..

6/ I am still not SHORT...

(because the stages of human religious believer is to seek confirming evidence + community from fellow believers in spite of growing counter evidence.

People want to be “right” (confirming what they believe) not “accurate” (confirming what is true).

7/ You also have very large Inst. holders psychologically reinforced by
a) +positively+ making money on the ascending stock
b) -negatively- relishing the naysayers along the way
c) PUBLICLY commenting
commitment bias
consistency/contradiction avoidance
voting for pay package...


You can follow @wolfejosh.



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